Airport terminal passenger forecast under the impact of COVID-19 outbreaks: A case study from China

Passengers significantly affect airport terminal energy consumption and indoor environmental quality. Accurate passenger forecasting provides important insights for airport terminals to optimize their operation and management. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has greatly increased the uncertainty in airport passenger since 2020. There are insufficient studies to investigate which pandemic-related variables should be considered in forecasting airport passenger trends under the impact of COVID-19 outbreaks. In this study, the interrelationship between COVID-19 pandemic trends and passenger traffic at a major airport terminal in China was analyzed on a day-by-day basis. During COVID-19 outbreaks, three stages of passenger change were identified and characterized, i.e., the decline stage, the stabilization stage, and the recovery stage. A typical "sudden drop and slow recovery” pattern of passenger traffic was identified. A LightGBM model including pandemic variables was developed to forecast short-term daily passenger traffic at the airport terminal. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values was used to quantify the contribution of input pandemic variables. Results indicated the inclusion of pandemic variables reduced the model error by 27.7% compared to a baseline model. The cumulative numbers of COVID-19 cases in previous weeks were found to be stronger predictors of future passenger traffic than daily COVID-19 cases in the most recent week. In addition, the impact of pandemic control policies and passengers' travel behavior was discussed. Our empirical findings provide important implications for airport terminal operations in response to the on-going COVID-19 pandemic.

Investigation on the effectiveness of ventilation dilution on mitigating COVID-19 patients' secondary airway damage due to exposure to disinfectants.

Chlorine-containing disinfectants are widely used in hospitals to prevent hospital-acquired severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. Meanwhile, ventilation is a simple but effective means to maintain clean air. It is essential to explore the exposure level and health effects of coronavirus disease 2019 patients' inhalation exposure to by-products of chloride-containing disinfectants under frequent surface disinfection and understand the role of ventilation in mitigating subsequent airway damage. We determined ventilation dilution performance and indoor air quality of two intensive care unit wards of the largest temporary hospital constructed in China, Leishenshan Hospital. The chloride inhalation exposure levels, and health risks indicated by interleukin-6 and D-dimer test results of 32 patients were analysed. The mean ± standard deviation values of the outdoor air change rate in the two intensive care unit wards were 8.8 ± 1.5 h-1 (Intensive care unit 1) and 4.1 ± 1.4 h-1 (Intensive care unit 2). The median carbon dioxide and fine particulate matter concentrations were 480 ppm and 19 µg/m3 for intensive care unit 1, and 567 ppm and 21 µg/m3 for intensive care unit 2, all of which were around the average levels of those in permanent hospitals (579 ppm and 21 µg/m3). Of these patients, the median (lower quartile, upper quartile) chloride exposure time and calculated dose were 26.66 (2.89, 57.21) h and 0.357 (0.008, 1.317) mg, respectively. A statistically significant positive correlation was observed between interleukin-6 and D-dimer concentrations. To conclude, ventilation helped maintain ward air cleanliness and health risks were not observed.

Aerosol Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Two Dormitories - Hubei and Shandong Provinces, China, 2020.

What is already known about this topic?: Aerosol transmission is one route for the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, uncertainty remains on the threshold of ventilation rate in its occurrence. What is added by this report?: Based on two cases in Shandong Province and Hubei Province, the effect of wearing masks and the minimum ventilation required to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) aerosol transmission was determined. What are the implications for public health practice?: No masking and low ventilation rates lead to a relatively high contribution of aerosols to COVID-19 transmission. Thus, public awareness of wearing masks should increase and the ventilation rate should be sufficiently higher than the minimum required ventilation.

Affordable measures to monitor and alarm nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection due to poor ventilation.

Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, the nosocomial infection rate worldwide has been reported high. It is urgent to figure out an affordable way to monitor and alarm nosocomial infection. Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration can reflect the ventilation performance and crowdedness, so CO2 sensors were placed in Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital's fever clinic and emergency department where the nosocomial infection risk was high. Patients' medical records were extracted to figure out their timelines and whereabouts. Based on these, site-specific CO2 concentration thresholds were calculated by the dilution equation and sites' risk ratios were determined to evaluate ventilation performance. CO2 concentration successfully revealed that the expiratory tracer was poorly diluted in the mechanically ventilated inner spaces, compared to naturally ventilated outer spaces, among all of the monitoring sites that COVID-19 patients visited. Sufficient ventilation, personal protection, and disinfection measures led to no nosocomial infection in this hospital. The actual outdoor airflow rate per person (Qc ) during the COVID-19 patients' presence was estimated for reference using equilibrium analysis. During the stay of single COVID-19 patient wearing a mask, the minimum Qc value was 15-18 L/(s·person). When the patient was given throat swab sampling, the minimum Qc value was 21 L/(s·person). The Qc value reached 36-42 L/(s·person) thanks to window-inducted natural ventilation, when two COVID-19 patients wearing masks shared the same space with other patients or healthcare workers. The CO2 concentration monitoring system proved to be effective in assessing nosocomial infection risk by reflecting real-time dilution of patients' exhalation.

Impact of intervention methods on COVID-19 transmission in Shenzhen.

By March 31, 2020, COVID-19 had spread to more than 200 countries. Over 750,000 confirmed cases were reported, leading to more than 36,000 deaths. In this study, we analysed the efficiency of various intervention strategies to prevent infection by the virus, SARS-CoV-2, using an agent-based SEIIR model, in the fully urbanised city of Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China. Shortening the duration from symptom onset to hospital admission, quarantining recent arrivals from Hubei Province, and letting symptomatic individuals stay at home were found to be the three most important interventions to reduce the risk of infection in Shenzhen. The ideal time window for a mandatory quarantine of arrivals from Hubei Province was between 10 January and January 17, 2020, while the ideal time window for local intervention strategies was between 15 and 22 January. The risk of infection could have been reduced by 50% if all symptomatic individuals had immediately gone to hospital for isolation, and by 35% if a 14-day quarantine for arrivals from Hubei Province had been introduced one week earlier. Intervention strategies implemented in Shenzhen were effective, and the spread of infection would be controlled even if the initial basic reproduction number had doubled. Our results may be useful for other cities when choosing their intervention strategies to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19.